What Putin Is Doing
Like everyone else, I am compulsively following events in Ukraine. Each morning, I wake to check to the news to see if that nation still exists. So far, it remains among us, but as of this morning (March 3), Russia seems to have pulled out all the stops. It has committed enormous resources to the war.
In the long run, I’m not sure where it will end. But I am sure it will not end well for Ukraine or its people.
But…
Here is the thing. Ukraine stunned Putin and his people by not collapsing in the first few days of the war. The Ukrainians fought back, heroically, and are fighting back still. And, already, military analysts — men and women of real expertise, not just bloggers and amateurs like myself — are asking what the end game could possibly be. Some of them are suggesting that even if Russia succeeds in overrunning the whole country, it would then face a long, bloody, exhausting insurgency that could last literally decades.(1)
And, then, too, there is the little fact that by invading Ukraine, Putin has managed to do something that many thought impossible until then—to wit, he has reunited the West, and NATO, in ways that simply couldn’t have been imagined even a month ago. Indeed, in some ways, Putin has managed to league the whole world against him. No small accomplishment, that. (2)
Finally, there is the fact that by invading Ukraine, and inviting sanctions against the Russia economy, Putin has managed to wound his own nation…economically…at a time when it could use every Euro and every Dollar it can get.(3)
So…
I don’t know what will happen in Ukraine in the near future. It may be, alas, that the war will end soon, and not to advantage of the Ukrainian people.
But, also, I’m guessing the future will be every bit as difficult for Putin and his supporters. I am guessing that even victory, for them, will prove unpleasant.
For the reality is that modern war can be difficult to control. And sometimes…
Even quite tiny adversaries, like the spider or the scorpion…
Can be surprisingly toxic.
*
Until next time…
Onward and Upward.
~mjt
Sources:
1. “The Coming Ukrainian Insurgency: Russia’s Invasion Could Unleash Forces the Kremlin Can’t Control,” By Douglas London, Foreign Affairs, February 25, 2022, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukraine/2022-02-25/coming-ukrainian-insurgency
2. “How Putin United the World Against Him,” By Ian Bremmer, Time, February 28, 2022 4:01 PM EST, https://time.com/6152655/putin-united-the-world-against-him/
3. “‘I'm In Shock': Russians Brace For Hardship As Putin's War On Ukraine Plunges Economy Into Crisis,” By Todd Prince, RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty, March 02, 2022 20:25 GMT, https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-economic-shock-hardship-ukraine-invasion/31732913.html
Copyright©2022 Michael Jay Tucker
*
Примечание для мужчин и женщин в правительстве России: ради Бога, свергните Путина сейчас, пока он не убил вас всех.
Comments